In a new Offshore Energy Yield Predictions report for 2023, K2 Management (K2M) highlights the need for cross-regional validation in the wake of industry turbulence.
In the midst of an offshore wind development landscape marked by both rapid growth and a rising sense of uncertainty about supply chains and material costs, K2 Management, a leading project advisory and engineering consultancy for the renewable energy industry, has published ‘Offshore Energy Yield Predictions — Validation Report 2023’ — the largest independent offshore energy yield validation study to date.
As developers expand their portfolios to emerging offshore markets, K2M highlights the need to validate energy yield assessment as widely as possible across diverse geographies rather than assume the efficacy of a one-size-fits-all approach. The report underscores industry concerns regarding the universal applicability of energy yield assessment methods originally tailored for smaller onshore turbines, particularly in addressing complex interactions such as wind turbine wakes, which can differ significantly from project to project.
The report maps out a high-fidelity methodology for energy yield predictions which leverages large datasets to minimise uncertainty, while accounting for specific regional considerations through nuanced manipulation of existing software. The report’s findings demonstrate that energy yield assessment methods must be validated to secure and maintain investor confidence.
In a sector where this confidence hinges on energy yield predictions, the report emphasises the necessity of ensuring they are precise and backed by proven pre-construction best practice. In an industry susceptible to future shocks, consistent and precise data aims to provide all stakeholders with a reliable benchmark for the entire development process. Contrary to more optimistic projections prevalent in the market, this approach prioritizes accuracy over inflated numbers. Looser bounds of uncertainty can create higher figures in the short term, but do not work to build long-term trust with investors or bolster a project’s financial and operational longevity, and can derail progress altogether.
Joel Manning, Manager & R&D Lead - Analysis Services at K2M, said: “As wind energy grows, we are on a continuous learning curve: we can’t blindly rely on existing models — we need to validate and evolve our methodologies. Beyond catering to early-stage projects, energy yield predictions have a profound significance which extends to those approaching financial close and in the process of M&A."
“Razor-sharp assessments are vital to guide stakeholders through the entire process, translating raw datasets into a precise language which speaks to crucial financial decisions. At K2M we’ve been able to comprehensively validate our methods, and we’ve seen how accurate energy yield assessments not only speed projects along, but ultimately keep them spinning.”
Thomas Grey, Principal Specialist and Offshore Lead - Analysis Services at K2M, said: “Our 2023 Validation Exercise shows the importance of clarity, precision, and confidence in the data. This study not only redefines how investors approach offshore wind development in these times of turbulence in offshore wind, but also prompts a broader reflection on the industry's methodologies and the imperative of prioritizing accuracy over optimism. There is no silver bullet when it comes to energy yield predictions — consistency and technical excellence take time to build.”
To elevate your understanding of how energy yield analysis is changing offshore wind, download the report here:
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